My Maurice Jones-Drew Blog

Since a pair of strong seasons in 2005 and 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been able to get out of the AFC South basement. They'll find themselves there yet again in 2010 if they can't do a better job against the pass. Last season, Jacksonville finished dead last in the NFL in sacks and 27th in pass defense, allowing 235.9 yards per game. That's just not going to get it done in a division with talented quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub.

In this article, I'll take a look a brief look at the offense and the defense. Then, I'll make my prediction on Jacksonville's finishing position in the AFC South.

Offense: Led by Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags boasted a top 10 rushing attack last season. Jones-Drew rushed for 1,391 yards and 15 touchdowns. In all, he tallied 16 scores, running his career total up to 54 in just four seasons.

The Jaguars will come with a heavy dose of Jones-Drew again in 2010, but an offense which only averaged 18.1 points in 2009 will continue to struggle if quarterback David Garrard can't return to his 2007 form. His completion percentage and touchdowns have been down each of the last two seasons while his interceptions have been way up.

To Garrard's credit, he hasn't had the strongest of wide receiver corps to work with. Jacksonville's wideouts don't get many headlines, but Mike Sims-Walker showed that he can get a few when he is healthy. Finally healthy, the fourth-year pro hauled in 63 passes for 869 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 starts. The Jags will need him to be an explosive playmaker in 2010 to keep defenses honest.

Defense: The Jags signed ex-Packer Aaron Kampman to help bolster their non-existent pass rush. Kampman tallied 36.5 sacks in the 2006-2008 seasons before struggling last year as an outside linebacker in Green Bay's new defensive scheme. On the line, with a hand in the dirt, Kampman is pretty good. He will certainly be an upgrade for the Jags. With teams paying a little closer attention to Kampman, Derrick Harvey will finally have the opportunity to live up to hype he brought with him to the league.

While Kampman's presence should improve the pass rush, I can't see it doing enough to keep Manning and Schaub from picking apart a secondary that still needs time to mature. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is star-caliber, but his play hasn't been as strong the past couple seasons. Fellow cornerback Derek Cox put together a strong rookie campaign with four interceptions, but he still has work to do. The Jaguars especially need better play from their safeties, who were very inconsistent performers in 2009.

Prediction: 4th AFC South - While Jacksonville has a quality running game, the NFL is a quarterbacks league. Unless Garrard can play like he did in 2007, the Jags will likely bring up the rear in their division again. NFL odds makers have listed the Jags as a +1000 long shot to win the AFC South.

Quarterback

Tom Brady- While there were some other great performances from week at the quarterback position, Brady easily had the best week. He actually had the best week of anyone this whole season. He simply tore apart the Titans secondary. He through for 380 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, almost all of which came in the first half. Oh and not to mention, it was below freezing and snowing. I expect to see this Brady more often.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss- This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone considering the game Brady had. Someone had to be catching all these passes. Wes Welker, another one of Brady's wide receivers, was the runner up. Moss had 129 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Maybe this duo will be back to their 2007 form. That would be great for fantasy owners.

Running Back

Maurice Jones-Drew- Most expected him to have a good performance this week, mainly because he was playing the Rams. The Rams have one of, if not the worst teams in the NFL. Jones- Drew was unstoppable in game that was much closer that most expected. He carried the ball for 133 yards and all three touchdowns. He also caught the ball for 45 yards. He has become a work horse since Fred Taylor has left and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Tight End

Zach Miller- He had a great game for the first time all season. He caught his first touchdown of the season as well. As all fantasy owners know, touchdowns are golden. He was targeted 11 times by quarterback JaMarcus Russell, which was 6 more than any other Oakland receiver. Miller had 139 yards and a touchdown. 86 of his yards came on a passing play where he broke several tackles in order to take it to the house. I wouldn't expect games like this from Miller often but maybe this is what Russell needed to get his feet under him.

Matt Messel

The Draft can be intense, grueling, and a little intimidating at times. But there are always multiple opportunities to harass your friends and co-owners over some draft day mistake they make. Just make sure you do not commit one of these very common, almost inevitable Draft Day Blunders. Someone will almost certainly pull off the following bloopers.

Here we go, in no particular order. Someone will ...

draft a player who has retired. (Years ago we had two guys fighting over Barry Sanders TWO YEARS AFTER he retired because they heard some ridiculous rumor.) unknowingly draft a player who is seriously injured. (If you read my other articles, you know that I did that my rookie year in a league many moons ago. Oh well, it happens to us all.) draft a QB RB and WR from the same team. (Don't you just love these morons?) take the maximum amount of time to make a selection in the first round. (I realize you have only had 6 months to prepare, so by all means, take your time. After all, I know your first round pick is a difficult decision.) show up late for the draft, hungover, with zero research, and draft a monster team. (I hate these guys. It is easier to hit the lottery 3 times in a row, but there is someone every year that accomplishes this.) draft players according to their abilities in some scoring system that exists only in their head, vehemently deny they were ever told the rules, complain when someone reminds them they wasted a pick, or picks, and cry allll yeearrr looonnnggg. (Nothing needs to be said here. You know who you are.) not take notes, not look at the draft board, and REPEATEDLY try to draft players that were taken rounds earlier. (This has got to be my pet peeve; these guys are usually blistered drunk by round three. Do they honestly think Terrell Owens is still available in Round 6?) mispronounce every player's name that they utter. (I realize Houshmandzadeh is a mouthful, but you hear it pronounced by sportscasters all the time. And the Chicago RB's name is pronounced "Matt For-tay" not "Matt 40", LT is not LanDainlium, and Maurice Jones-Drew's full name is NOT "Drew Jones, that guy for Jacksonville.") show up with no money, bring no food, (we always bring a covered dish each) bum beer from everyone, blow smoke in your face from borrowed cigarettes, borrow your cheat sheets and research (and then lose them) because $8 is evidently more than they could save up in six months to buy a guide, and generally attempt with every opening of their pie hole to prove themselves a bigger idiot than they were 10 minutes ago. (Don't be that guy. Really.) pay for their smoking hot girlfriend to play, and then spend the entire day picking for her. (No conflict of interest here, huh?)

These by no means are the only faux-pas committed on Draft Day, but are some of the more memorable.
If you would like to share some draft day horror stories with me, I will be sure to use them in future articles. Just contact me at the Email address below. Good luck on draft day, and remember, don't be that guy.

Am I reading this right?

The sports books have the Indianapolis Colts at 10-1 to win the Super Bowl? And 4-1 to make the Super Bowl? You mean there's still someone out there who'll bet on Indy?

That, my friends, is shocking. There is absolutely no way in the friggin' world the Colts will even make it to Miami, let alone win a title this year. I know experts have harped on the fact that Indy can't stop the run this season. I know you've seen everyone from Maurice Jones-Drew to Travis Henry to Ronnie Brown to Ron Dayne run wild on them in highlight packages over the past couple months. I know you believe Peyton Manning has a seriously tough road ahead of him if he's going to score enough points to overcome this 11-man tackling train wreck that passes for a defense. But I don't think you have a serious enough grasp on exactly how bad this Colts rush defense is.

Not a single team since 1985 has allowed as many rushing yards as Indianapolis. Not. One. Team. That's 652 other possible team-seasons, and the Colts allowed more rush yards per game, 173, than every single one of them. Clearly, that's historically bad. Want to go back even further? In the 16-game era (that is, since 1978) exactly nine teams have turned in worse seasons against the run than your 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Nine. There have been 849 team-seasons played from 1978 forward. In exactly nine of these team-seasons did a squad allow more than 173 yards rushing per game, a percentage of just over 1%. Here are the dirty nine, along with their yards rushing allowed per game, and their final won-loss record:

1978 Buffalo Bills: 201.8 rypg, (5-11)

1980 New Orleans Saints: 194.1 rypg, (1-15)

1978 Baltimore Colts: 188.1 rypg, (5-11)

1981 New England Patriots: 184.4 rypg, (2-14)

1979 Green Bay Packers: 180.3 rypg, (5-11)

1985 Houston Oilers: 175.9 rypg, (5-11)

1981 Seattle Seahawks: 175.4 rypg, (6-10)

1984 Houston Oilers: 174.3 rypg, (3-13)

1983 Houston Oilers: 174.2 rypg, (2-14)

Heck, technically we could even consider the historically bad Houston Oilers' run defense from 1983 to 1985 one team, couldn't we? Regardless, look at those won-loss records. The fact that the Colts actually went 12-4 this year is testament both to the offense's sheer excellence, and the fact that the AFC South is kind of a pathetic agglomeration of football teams. As if this weren't enough evidence that the Colts are going nowhere fast, here are your 16-game-era Super Bowl participants, with their regular-season rush-yards-per-game allowed:

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers: 85.5 rypg over Seattle Seahawks: 114.5 rypg

2004 New England Patriots: 98.3 rypg over Philadelphia Eagles: 118.9 rypg

2003 New England Patriots: 89.6 rypg over Carolina Panthers: 107.6 rypg

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 97.1 rypg over Oakland Raiders: 90.8 rypg

2001 New England Patriots: 115.9 rypg over St. Louis Rams: 85.9 rypg

2000 Baltimore Ravens: 60.6 rypg over New York Giants: 72.3 rypg

1999 St. Louis Rams: 74.3 rypg over Tennessee Titans: 96.9 rypg

1998 Denver Broncos: 80.4 rypg over Atlanta Falcons: 75.2 rypg

1997 Denver Broncos: 112.7 rypg over Green Bay Packers: 117.3 rypg

1996 Green Bay Packers: 88.5 rypg over New England Patriots: 93.9 rypg

1995 Dallas Cowboys: 110.8 rypg over Pittsburgh Steelers: 82.6 rypg

1994 San Francisco 49ers: 83.6 rypg over San Diego Chargers: 87.8 rypg

1993 Dallas Cowboys: 103.2 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 120.1 rypg

1992 Dallas Cowboys: 77.8 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 87.2 rypg

1991 Washington Redskins: 84.1 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 127.8 rypg

1990 New York Giants: 91.2 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 113 rypg

1989 San Francisco 49ers: 86.4 rypg over Denver Broncos: 98.8 rypg

1988 San Francisco 49ers: 99.2 rypg over Cincinnati Bengals: 128 rypg

1987 Washington Redskins: 104.9 rypg over Denver Broncos: 126.1 rypg

1986 New York Giants: 80.9 rypg over Denver Broncos: 102.6 rypg

1985 Chicago Bears: 82.4 rypg over New England Patriots: 103.4 rypg

1984 San Francisco 49ers: 112.2 rypg over Miami Dolphins: 134.7 rypg

1983 Los Angeles Raiders: 99.1 rypg over Washington Redskins: 80.6 rypg

1982 Washington Redskins: 105.1 rypg over Miami Dolphins: 142.8 rypg

1981 San Francisco 49ers: 119.9 rypg over Cincinnati Bengals: 117.6 rypg

1980 Oakland Raiders: 108.1 rypg over Philadelphia Eagles: 101.1 rypg

1979 Pittsburgh Steelers: 106.8 rypg over Los Angeles Rams: 124.8 rypg

1978 Pittsburgh Steelers: 110.9 rypg over Dallas Cowboys: 107.6 rypg

Average rush-yards-per-game allowed by all these teams? 100.5 yards per game. Average rush-yards-per-game allowed by the winners? 95.3 yards per game. And the losers? 105.7 yards per game. (It's worth noting that the team who allowed fewer defensive rush yards per game in the regular season has won 20 of these Super Bowls, and lost only eight.) The worst team against the run ever to play in a Super Bowl in the 16-game era? The '82 Miami Dolphins (142.8 rypg), and that was in a strike year, with only nine regular season games.

Give it up, Indy. There is no way.

How crazy was that Boise St. game over Oklahoma? I'm still smiling. Were you watching? Could you believe the great Boise St. plays? Clearly, Oklahoma didn't cover...did that make it a successful game, business-wise, for the books?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.ws : Considering everything that took place in the last 3:00 of regulation and overtime, the Fiesta Bowl was one of the best bowl games in recent memory. I think every TV in the building over here was on the game, and all eyes were definitely mesmerized by the heroics of Boise State. The hook-and-lateral play on 4th-and-18 clearly shocked the Sooners, and the 4th-and-2 TD pass with Zabransky in motion had Oklahoma scratching their heads, which ultimately made for a profitable situation for the house, and a little bit of glory and history for Boise.

Nick Saban is apparently out as Dolphins head coach after just two seasons, and on his way to Alabama. What do you think this means for Miami and for Alabama?

BDB, BoDog.ws : Well, for Miami it means starting back at square one. It was Saban who brought in Daunte Culpepper, and whoever the new coach is will need to solidify the quarterback position as his first priority. It may be a tricky role to assume, especially considering Ricky Williams may be back in the fold for Miami. Finding a good balance between him and Ronnie Brown will be a key for the new man's success. On the other hand, for Alabama it means they get the high-profile, highly-paid coach they've been looking for. We'll have to see how long it will be before Alabama gets back to the top of the SEC. However, with Saban's coaching skills and knowledge of the conference (since he previously coached at LSU), he should be prepared to bring Alabama back to national prominence.

Where is the betting public coming down on the college football National Championship game...in favor of Ohio St. or Florida? And how is the handle?

BDB, BoDog.ws : Leading up to the Ohio State vs. Florida game, the action has been balanced, with almost an identical wagered amount on both sides of the ball. Right now, the handle is low, but the majority of our action comes in the 48 hours prior to the game. We expect the action to come fast and heavy once the other bowl games are complete. Once the public starts to bet, the house expects to be a big fan of Florida.

I'm surprised the Colts are a seven-point favorite over the Chiefs. How many rushing yards do you think Larry Johnson will have in that game? And which of the Wild Card games do you think will see an underdog win outright?

BDB, BoDog.ws : The Kansas City/Indianapolis line opened with Indy as a seven-point favorite. So far, sharp bettors have not caused the line to move. Sportsbooks across the board seem to be holding steady at seven points in the early days leading up to the game. The betting public should keep this line steady, as enough people know of the weakness exhibited by the Colts run defense. By all accounts, Larry Johnson should have a career game against the Colts. The bruising running back averages 26 carries a game, and this number should increase into the 30s going up against the worst run defense in the league. Kansas City will need to ride Johnson to win this game. In order to defeat Indianapolis, you have to keep Manning off the field as much as possible. The best way to do this is to control the clock with a solid, time-consuming run game. The Colts can only hope that 2005 Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders is able to return from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, which has kept him out of 12 games this season. Sanders has been seen practicing the past few days, and is expected to start so long as the swelling in his knee can be controlled. Coach Tony Dungy has stated that Sanders can't solve all of the team's defensive problems. However, when he plays, the Colts are clearly a different team. The defense plays quicker, more aggressively and with more confidence. In terms of total yardage for Larry Johnson, if he can get 25+ carries in the game, it can be reasonably expected that he puts up 130+ yards, depending on the impact of Sanders. Unfortunately, the Wild Card game that could see an underdog win is Dallas in Seattle. With injuries depleting the starting cornerbacks for Seattle (both Ken Hamlin and Marcus Trufant are out), Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are in a good position to have big games. Seattle will be hard-pressed to stop the Dallas air attack, especially on the big plays. This could potentially lead to an unfortunate upset for the 'Hawks.