My Maurice Jones-Drew Blog

Since a pair of strong seasons in 2005 and 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been able to get out of the AFC South basement. They'll find themselves there yet again in 2010 if they can't do a better job against the pass. Last season, Jacksonville finished dead last in the NFL in sacks and 27th in pass defense, allowing 235.9 yards per game. That's just not going to get it done in a division with talented quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub.

In this article, I'll take a look a brief look at the offense and the defense. Then, I'll make my prediction on Jacksonville's finishing position in the AFC South.

Offense: Led by Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags boasted a top 10 rushing attack last season. Jones-Drew rushed for 1,391 yards and 15 touchdowns. In all, he tallied 16 scores, running his career total up to 54 in just four seasons.

The Jaguars will come with a heavy dose of Jones-Drew again in 2010, but an offense which only averaged 18.1 points in 2009 will continue to struggle if quarterback David Garrard can't return to his 2007 form. His completion percentage and touchdowns have been down each of the last two seasons while his interceptions have been way up.

To Garrard's credit, he hasn't had the strongest of wide receiver corps to work with. Jacksonville's wideouts don't get many headlines, but Mike Sims-Walker showed that he can get a few when he is healthy. Finally healthy, the fourth-year pro hauled in 63 passes for 869 yards and seven touchdowns in just 14 starts. The Jags will need him to be an explosive playmaker in 2010 to keep defenses honest.

Defense: The Jags signed ex-Packer Aaron Kampman to help bolster their non-existent pass rush. Kampman tallied 36.5 sacks in the 2006-2008 seasons before struggling last year as an outside linebacker in Green Bay's new defensive scheme. On the line, with a hand in the dirt, Kampman is pretty good. He will certainly be an upgrade for the Jags. With teams paying a little closer attention to Kampman, Derrick Harvey will finally have the opportunity to live up to hype he brought with him to the league.

While Kampman's presence should improve the pass rush, I can't see it doing enough to keep Manning and Schaub from picking apart a secondary that still needs time to mature. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is star-caliber, but his play hasn't been as strong the past couple seasons. Fellow cornerback Derek Cox put together a strong rookie campaign with four interceptions, but he still has work to do. The Jaguars especially need better play from their safeties, who were very inconsistent performers in 2009.

Prediction: 4th AFC South - While Jacksonville has a quality running game, the NFL is a quarterbacks league. Unless Garrard can play like he did in 2007, the Jags will likely bring up the rear in their division again. NFL odds makers have listed the Jags as a +1000 long shot to win the AFC South.

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a few moves during the off season that led many to wonder whether they may once again contend for the playoffs in 2009.

David Garrard seems to improve a bit with each season, the team acquired pro bowl wide receiver Torry Holt, and despite the absence of Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the finest talents at the running back position in the NFL, and this would be his year to fully shine. A few other key acquisitions bolstered a roster that looked like it was ready to contend.

The team headed to Indy in week 1 of the NFL season. While the team usually plays some pretty good football against the Colts, beating the Colts on their own turf is a tall order, especially in week 1 while emotions are running high.

The Jaguars nearly came away with a win despite the challenges, falling by only two points to the Colts in a 14-12 loss. The team seemed to play efficient football, and limited the effectiveness of Peyton Manning, one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the game.

Week 2 was somewhat disappointing after the solid week 1 effort. The Cardinals, who had fallen to the 49ers in week 1, visited Jacksonville and ripped apart the Jaguars defense at the seams, winning by a 31-17 margin. Kurt Warner was 24 of 26 at quarterback, and such a high completion rate raises some serious questions about the defense in Jacksonville. Can this team turn things around? Week 3 at Houston will be another tough test, so the Jaguars may find themselves in an unpleasant hole from here.

Quarterback

Tom Brady- While there were some other great performances from week at the quarterback position, Brady easily had the best week. He actually had the best week of anyone this whole season. He simply tore apart the Titans secondary. He through for 380 passing yards and 6 touchdowns, almost all of which came in the first half. Oh and not to mention, it was below freezing and snowing. I expect to see this Brady more often.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss- This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone considering the game Brady had. Someone had to be catching all these passes. Wes Welker, another one of Brady's wide receivers, was the runner up. Moss had 129 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Maybe this duo will be back to their 2007 form. That would be great for fantasy owners.

Running Back

Maurice Jones-Drew- Most expected him to have a good performance this week, mainly because he was playing the Rams. The Rams have one of, if not the worst teams in the NFL. Jones- Drew was unstoppable in game that was much closer that most expected. He carried the ball for 133 yards and all three touchdowns. He also caught the ball for 45 yards. He has become a work horse since Fred Taylor has left and is showing no signs of slowing down.

Tight End

Zach Miller- He had a great game for the first time all season. He caught his first touchdown of the season as well. As all fantasy owners know, touchdowns are golden. He was targeted 11 times by quarterback JaMarcus Russell, which was 6 more than any other Oakland receiver. Miller had 139 yards and a touchdown. 86 of his yards came on a passing play where he broke several tackles in order to take it to the house. I wouldn't expect games like this from Miller often but maybe this is what Russell needed to get his feet under him.

Matt Messel

As the season winds down for the remaining NFL's regular season i have noticed that the rookie of the year award candidates are very much up for debate, I personally think the leading candidate is Marques Colston of the New Orleans Saints. He continues to be productive week after week he's currently the leader in receiving yards for rookies at 869 yards, that's over 300 yards more than the runner up in this category. Marques Colston is also the leader in receiving touchdowns for all rookies with 7, and he's also second in receptions for all rookies trailing his teammate and preseason favorite for the rookie of the year honors Reggie Bush.

Let's talk about some of the other very talented rookies, such as Vince Young of the Tennessee Titans he is beginning to emerge as a playmaker now that his playing time has increased. Vince is currently second among all rookies with touchdown passes at 8, he's currently third in passer ratings among all rookies at 63.9%. Vince also remains in third in passing yards among all rookies with 1323 yards. Let's not forget about Matt Leinart the Left Handed gunslinger from the Arizona Cardinals, Matt became the fulltime starter a couple of weeks into the season. Matt seems to be catching on quick to the NFL's aggressive style of play; Matt currently is the leader among all rookies in passing yards with 1753, second in passer ratings at 69.6 and third in passing touchdowns with 7. Lets take a look at Reggie Bush and his impact he has had on his team, Reggie currently leads all rookies in receptions with 64. Reggie also has over 431 yards receiving which is fourth among all rookies, and he is currently second among all rookies in punt return average with 9.2 .

Take your pick and cast your vote I've made mine.

Other Players to Watch:

Bruce Gradkowski, Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Santonio Holmes, & Laurence Maroney

Are the best years of the Jacksonville Jaguars behind us? The Jaguars were the talk of the NFL in the late 90s but in recent years these cats have fallen on hard times. When new coach Jack Del Rio came aboard however, things started to change slowly but surely. In 2006, the Jaguars finished with a record of 8-8, and one year later they peaked with an 11-5 season record and a trip to the playoffs. Could 2008 be the year that the Jacksonville Jaguars finally commands respect and makes a serious play for the championship?

There have been some notable transactions in the office thus far, including the trading of wide receiver Troy Williamson to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for a 6th round draft pick. The team also lost Ernest Wilford, Marcus Stroud, Bobby McCray and Sammy Knight. The team did receive a few extra draft picks as well as acquisitions like wide receiver in Jerry Porter of the Oakland Raiders, cornerback Drayton Florence of the San Diego Chargers and quarterback Cleo Lemon of the Miami Dolphins. However, Jacksonville fans were far more interested in the team's draft selection for 2008.

Some of the notable draft picks include defensive end Derrick Harvey, defensive end Quentin Groves, linebacker Thomas Williams, defensive back Trae Williams and running back Chauncey Washington. Harvey's draft pick was met with some hesitant response due to his size though his pass rushing ability is unquestioned. Groves recently had heart surgery but has been cleared to return at 100%, while Washington received some negative attention for his blocking abilities.

It's obvious to see that the Jaguars are beefing up their defense, which concerns some experts but actually strengthens the confidence of Jacksonville fans who remember that the Jaguar's offense in 2007 was exceptional. Fans and management credit Del Rio with the Jaguars' dramatic turn around-in fact he has already been extended to 2012! The Jaguars may be clawing their way to the Super Bowl soon enough and in 2008 they are surely one of the most important teams to watch.

David Garrard has definitely stepped into his roll as starting quarter back with the confidence of a seasoned veteran. With a tag-team duo of running backs in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew tearing down the field, their is plenty of hope for a post season. Although the Jacksonville receiving core lacks the luster of some of the established air shows, they are all talented enough to move the chains 10 yards at a time. There is no question that this team revolves around the strength of the running game. If their running duet can stay healthy, they will unleash a ground and pound attraction that will explode on the highlight reel week after week.

If you want to catch the Jacksonville Jaguars in action then contact Direct TV, the satellite television provider. They offer Jacksonville Jaguars coverage through a variety of channels and special features. For instance, the Direct TV NFL Sunday Ticket and channels like the NFL Network, NFL Sunday Snap or Highlights on Demand give you %100 complete coverage. You can watch over 200 games in a season, with 14 games outside your local area every Sunday. You can watch special enhanced games that provide detailed scoreboards as well as a Player Tracker that gives you all the latest statistics on teams and players.

Coming off a 5-11 season in 2008, not much was expected of the Jacksonville Jaguars last season and many thought it would be the final year on the sidelines for Coach Jack Del Rio and his staff. But after starting 0-2 last season, the Jags started playing over their heads - yet would also throw in an occasional stinker.

For example, the Jags won division games against Houston and Tennessee to get back to.500 but then got blasted 41-0 by a bad Seattle team. A close win versus the Rams followed that, but then the Vince Young-led Titans crushed the Jags in Week 8. So at 3-4 the playoffs looked unlikely, but then Jacksonville lost only once in the next five games to get to 7-5 and pretty much became in charge of its own destiny. However, the wheels fell off in the final month, with the Jags finishing on a four-game losing streak to miss the playoffs once again.

This season could be franchise-altering in many ways. Certainly Del Rio will be a goner if the Jags suffer another losing season - he nearly took the USC job. In January, Del Rio said quarterback David Garrard was in the "middle tier of quarterbacks in the league." And he's probably right considering Garrard has thrown 30 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions the last two seasons and been sacked 84 times. Also, owner Wayne Weaver questioned Garrard's leadership skills. This could very well be the QB's final season in Jacksonville.

This season Del Rio wants to open up the offense more after it ranked 24th in the league in scoring last year. The problem is that the Jags have an iffy offensive line at best and possess no real weapons on offense other than Maurice Jones-Drew and emerging wideout Mike-Sims Walker.

The defense was by far the bottom of the league last year with only 14 sacks (fifth-worst in NFL history) - a few individuals had more than the Jaguars in 2009. The team hopes it helped solve that problem by drafting Cal's Tyson Alualu at No. 10 and signing Packers free agent Aaron Kampman. Of course, many panned the Jags for picking Alualu too early and Kampman is coming off major knee surgery. Jacksonville will shift from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in an effort to get more pressure.

And the franchise's north Florida future could be affected this year. A lousy season and more empty seats - the Jags face blackouts for every home game - means we could see the team moving to Los Angeles very soon.

The NFL picks list Jacksonville's 'over/under' for NFL season win totals at 7. Let's break down the 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars schedule:

Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12, Denver, 1:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, at San Diego, 4:15 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, Philadelphia, 4:05 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, Indianapolis, 4:05 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 18, Tennessee, 8:30 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, at Dallas, 1:00 PM
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 14, Houston, 1:00 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, Oakland, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, at Houston, 1:00 PM

This ranks as the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL with an opponents' 2009 winning percentage of .535 (137-119). There are five games against playoff teams.

The Jags start with three of four at home, which sounds nice, but that is easily their toughest stretch of opponents this season, including three in a row against potential Super Bowl contenders and the two teams with the best records in the AFC last year. Jacksonville has won four of the past five against Denver, so starting 1-0 is likely. Winning at San Diego seems unlikely because the Jags clearly don't like traveling to the West Coast: they were outscored a combined 61-3 in two games on the left coast last year. On the positive side, the Jaguars have won nine of their past 13 September games under Del Rio.

Following that Colts game comes arguably the easiest three-game stretch of the season and the time when the Jags must capitalize with a minimum of two wins before facing Dallas prior to the bye week. And while Houston should be good, the Jags certainly are capable of winning those back-to-back home games out of the bye. And they better do just that, considering four of the final six are on the road. Jags backers better pray for unseasonably warm weather in New Jersey (Giants) and Tennessee. Why? The Jaguars are 1-8 all-time in games played in temperatures of 27 degrees or colder. By comparison they are 24-10 in games played in 81 degrees temperatures or higher. The NFL betting line says don't rule out an upset at Indy, as the Jags won there in 2008 and nearly did again last year. Indy has won five of six in the series, but Jacksonville usually gives the Colts trouble.

Jacksonville should be able to win six games at home, so can it get two road wins to exceed the WagerWeb total? Obviously those games at Buffalo and Kansas City stand out as excellent chances for NFL Power Rankings matchups. This looks like an 8-8 team, which may or may not save Del Rio, so take the 'over'.

The Draft can be intense, grueling, and a little intimidating at times. But there are always multiple opportunities to harass your friends and co-owners over some draft day mistake they make. Just make sure you do not commit one of these very common, almost inevitable Draft Day Blunders. Someone will almost certainly pull off the following bloopers.

Here we go, in no particular order. Someone will ...

draft a player who has retired. (Years ago we had two guys fighting over Barry Sanders TWO YEARS AFTER he retired because they heard some ridiculous rumor.) unknowingly draft a player who is seriously injured. (If you read my other articles, you know that I did that my rookie year in a league many moons ago. Oh well, it happens to us all.) draft a QB RB and WR from the same team. (Don't you just love these morons?) take the maximum amount of time to make a selection in the first round. (I realize you have only had 6 months to prepare, so by all means, take your time. After all, I know your first round pick is a difficult decision.) show up late for the draft, hungover, with zero research, and draft a monster team. (I hate these guys. It is easier to hit the lottery 3 times in a row, but there is someone every year that accomplishes this.) draft players according to their abilities in some scoring system that exists only in their head, vehemently deny they were ever told the rules, complain when someone reminds them they wasted a pick, or picks, and cry allll yeearrr looonnnggg. (Nothing needs to be said here. You know who you are.) not take notes, not look at the draft board, and REPEATEDLY try to draft players that were taken rounds earlier. (This has got to be my pet peeve; these guys are usually blistered drunk by round three. Do they honestly think Terrell Owens is still available in Round 6?) mispronounce every player's name that they utter. (I realize Houshmandzadeh is a mouthful, but you hear it pronounced by sportscasters all the time. And the Chicago RB's name is pronounced "Matt For-tay" not "Matt 40", LT is not LanDainlium, and Maurice Jones-Drew's full name is NOT "Drew Jones, that guy for Jacksonville.") show up with no money, bring no food, (we always bring a covered dish each) bum beer from everyone, blow smoke in your face from borrowed cigarettes, borrow your cheat sheets and research (and then lose them) because $8 is evidently more than they could save up in six months to buy a guide, and generally attempt with every opening of their pie hole to prove themselves a bigger idiot than they were 10 minutes ago. (Don't be that guy. Really.) pay for their smoking hot girlfriend to play, and then spend the entire day picking for her. (No conflict of interest here, huh?)

These by no means are the only faux-pas committed on Draft Day, but are some of the more memorable.
If you would like to share some draft day horror stories with me, I will be sure to use them in future articles. Just contact me at the Email address below. Good luck on draft day, and remember, don't be that guy.

Am I reading this right?

The sports books have the Indianapolis Colts at 10-1 to win the Super Bowl? And 4-1 to make the Super Bowl? You mean there's still someone out there who'll bet on Indy?

That, my friends, is shocking. There is absolutely no way in the friggin' world the Colts will even make it to Miami, let alone win a title this year. I know experts have harped on the fact that Indy can't stop the run this season. I know you've seen everyone from Maurice Jones-Drew to Travis Henry to Ronnie Brown to Ron Dayne run wild on them in highlight packages over the past couple months. I know you believe Peyton Manning has a seriously tough road ahead of him if he's going to score enough points to overcome this 11-man tackling train wreck that passes for a defense. But I don't think you have a serious enough grasp on exactly how bad this Colts rush defense is.

Not a single team since 1985 has allowed as many rushing yards as Indianapolis. Not. One. Team. That's 652 other possible team-seasons, and the Colts allowed more rush yards per game, 173, than every single one of them. Clearly, that's historically bad. Want to go back even further? In the 16-game era (that is, since 1978) exactly nine teams have turned in worse seasons against the run than your 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Nine. There have been 849 team-seasons played from 1978 forward. In exactly nine of these team-seasons did a squad allow more than 173 yards rushing per game, a percentage of just over 1%. Here are the dirty nine, along with their yards rushing allowed per game, and their final won-loss record:

1978 Buffalo Bills: 201.8 rypg, (5-11)

1980 New Orleans Saints: 194.1 rypg, (1-15)

1978 Baltimore Colts: 188.1 rypg, (5-11)

1981 New England Patriots: 184.4 rypg, (2-14)

1979 Green Bay Packers: 180.3 rypg, (5-11)

1985 Houston Oilers: 175.9 rypg, (5-11)

1981 Seattle Seahawks: 175.4 rypg, (6-10)

1984 Houston Oilers: 174.3 rypg, (3-13)

1983 Houston Oilers: 174.2 rypg, (2-14)

Heck, technically we could even consider the historically bad Houston Oilers' run defense from 1983 to 1985 one team, couldn't we? Regardless, look at those won-loss records. The fact that the Colts actually went 12-4 this year is testament both to the offense's sheer excellence, and the fact that the AFC South is kind of a pathetic agglomeration of football teams. As if this weren't enough evidence that the Colts are going nowhere fast, here are your 16-game-era Super Bowl participants, with their regular-season rush-yards-per-game allowed:

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers: 85.5 rypg over Seattle Seahawks: 114.5 rypg

2004 New England Patriots: 98.3 rypg over Philadelphia Eagles: 118.9 rypg

2003 New England Patriots: 89.6 rypg over Carolina Panthers: 107.6 rypg

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 97.1 rypg over Oakland Raiders: 90.8 rypg

2001 New England Patriots: 115.9 rypg over St. Louis Rams: 85.9 rypg

2000 Baltimore Ravens: 60.6 rypg over New York Giants: 72.3 rypg

1999 St. Louis Rams: 74.3 rypg over Tennessee Titans: 96.9 rypg

1998 Denver Broncos: 80.4 rypg over Atlanta Falcons: 75.2 rypg

1997 Denver Broncos: 112.7 rypg over Green Bay Packers: 117.3 rypg

1996 Green Bay Packers: 88.5 rypg over New England Patriots: 93.9 rypg

1995 Dallas Cowboys: 110.8 rypg over Pittsburgh Steelers: 82.6 rypg

1994 San Francisco 49ers: 83.6 rypg over San Diego Chargers: 87.8 rypg

1993 Dallas Cowboys: 103.2 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 120.1 rypg

1992 Dallas Cowboys: 77.8 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 87.2 rypg

1991 Washington Redskins: 84.1 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 127.8 rypg

1990 New York Giants: 91.2 rypg over Buffalo Bills: 113 rypg

1989 San Francisco 49ers: 86.4 rypg over Denver Broncos: 98.8 rypg

1988 San Francisco 49ers: 99.2 rypg over Cincinnati Bengals: 128 rypg

1987 Washington Redskins: 104.9 rypg over Denver Broncos: 126.1 rypg

1986 New York Giants: 80.9 rypg over Denver Broncos: 102.6 rypg

1985 Chicago Bears: 82.4 rypg over New England Patriots: 103.4 rypg

1984 San Francisco 49ers: 112.2 rypg over Miami Dolphins: 134.7 rypg

1983 Los Angeles Raiders: 99.1 rypg over Washington Redskins: 80.6 rypg

1982 Washington Redskins: 105.1 rypg over Miami Dolphins: 142.8 rypg

1981 San Francisco 49ers: 119.9 rypg over Cincinnati Bengals: 117.6 rypg

1980 Oakland Raiders: 108.1 rypg over Philadelphia Eagles: 101.1 rypg

1979 Pittsburgh Steelers: 106.8 rypg over Los Angeles Rams: 124.8 rypg

1978 Pittsburgh Steelers: 110.9 rypg over Dallas Cowboys: 107.6 rypg

Average rush-yards-per-game allowed by all these teams? 100.5 yards per game. Average rush-yards-per-game allowed by the winners? 95.3 yards per game. And the losers? 105.7 yards per game. (It's worth noting that the team who allowed fewer defensive rush yards per game in the regular season has won 20 of these Super Bowls, and lost only eight.) The worst team against the run ever to play in a Super Bowl in the 16-game era? The '82 Miami Dolphins (142.8 rypg), and that was in a strike year, with only nine regular season games.

Give it up, Indy. There is no way.

How crazy was that Boise St. game over Oklahoma? I'm still smiling. Were you watching? Could you believe the great Boise St. plays? Clearly, Oklahoma didn't cover...did that make it a successful game, business-wise, for the books?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.ws : Considering everything that took place in the last 3:00 of regulation and overtime, the Fiesta Bowl was one of the best bowl games in recent memory. I think every TV in the building over here was on the game, and all eyes were definitely mesmerized by the heroics of Boise State. The hook-and-lateral play on 4th-and-18 clearly shocked the Sooners, and the 4th-and-2 TD pass with Zabransky in motion had Oklahoma scratching their heads, which ultimately made for a profitable situation for the house, and a little bit of glory and history for Boise.

Nick Saban is apparently out as Dolphins head coach after just two seasons, and on his way to Alabama. What do you think this means for Miami and for Alabama?

BDB, BoDog.ws : Well, for Miami it means starting back at square one. It was Saban who brought in Daunte Culpepper, and whoever the new coach is will need to solidify the quarterback position as his first priority. It may be a tricky role to assume, especially considering Ricky Williams may be back in the fold for Miami. Finding a good balance between him and Ronnie Brown will be a key for the new man's success. On the other hand, for Alabama it means they get the high-profile, highly-paid coach they've been looking for. We'll have to see how long it will be before Alabama gets back to the top of the SEC. However, with Saban's coaching skills and knowledge of the conference (since he previously coached at LSU), he should be prepared to bring Alabama back to national prominence.

Where is the betting public coming down on the college football National Championship game...in favor of Ohio St. or Florida? And how is the handle?

BDB, BoDog.ws : Leading up to the Ohio State vs. Florida game, the action has been balanced, with almost an identical wagered amount on both sides of the ball. Right now, the handle is low, but the majority of our action comes in the 48 hours prior to the game. We expect the action to come fast and heavy once the other bowl games are complete. Once the public starts to bet, the house expects to be a big fan of Florida.

I'm surprised the Colts are a seven-point favorite over the Chiefs. How many rushing yards do you think Larry Johnson will have in that game? And which of the Wild Card games do you think will see an underdog win outright?

BDB, BoDog.ws : The Kansas City/Indianapolis line opened with Indy as a seven-point favorite. So far, sharp bettors have not caused the line to move. Sportsbooks across the board seem to be holding steady at seven points in the early days leading up to the game. The betting public should keep this line steady, as enough people know of the weakness exhibited by the Colts run defense. By all accounts, Larry Johnson should have a career game against the Colts. The bruising running back averages 26 carries a game, and this number should increase into the 30s going up against the worst run defense in the league. Kansas City will need to ride Johnson to win this game. In order to defeat Indianapolis, you have to keep Manning off the field as much as possible. The best way to do this is to control the clock with a solid, time-consuming run game. The Colts can only hope that 2005 Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders is able to return from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, which has kept him out of 12 games this season. Sanders has been seen practicing the past few days, and is expected to start so long as the swelling in his knee can be controlled. Coach Tony Dungy has stated that Sanders can't solve all of the team's defensive problems. However, when he plays, the Colts are clearly a different team. The defense plays quicker, more aggressively and with more confidence. In terms of total yardage for Larry Johnson, if he can get 25+ carries in the game, it can be reasonably expected that he puts up 130+ yards, depending on the impact of Sanders. Unfortunately, the Wild Card game that could see an underdog win is Dallas in Seattle. With injuries depleting the starting cornerbacks for Seattle (both Ken Hamlin and Marcus Trufant are out), Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are in a good position to have big games. Seattle will be hard-pressed to stop the Dallas air attack, especially on the big plays. This could potentially lead to an unfortunate upset for the 'Hawks.

Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson gave the Sophomore Slump a vicious stiff arm as he won the NFL Rushing Title in 2008. He ran for 1760 yards on 363 carries (4.8) with 10 TDs. He added 21 receptions for 125 yards. He topped 100 yards ten times and was held under 76 yards just once. Talk about steady production. Despite having two monster games as a Rookie (224 & 296) he topped 75 yards just seven times. His consistency improved dramatically. What I like about AP is how he holds himself accountable. He really takes his "shortcomings" seriously and works hard to improve. I fully expect him to be an even more complete back in 2009, which should be scary for opposing Defenses.

The Vikings face Cincinnati, Carolina, and Chicago in the fantasy playoffs. Cincy has a much-improved Defense (on paper), but he should still be able to have his way with them. Carolina could prove to be tough. Chicago isn't the same Defense as it's been in the past, but they should present a challenge, especially at home. AP should get off to a fast start facing Cleveland and Detroit in Weeks 1 & 2 and St. Louis in Week 5. He should dominate Detroit in Week 10 and Arizona in Week 13.

AP will go 1 or 2 in most leagues. Standard scoring he'll probably be #1 while PPR leagues could push him to #2. I think he's even better in 2009 rushing for 1800 yards and 14 TDs.

Michael Turner
Michael Turner more than proved he was capable of stepping out of LT's shadow to be a feature back. Early in the season he was inconsistent. He would dominate bad Defenses [Detroit, KC, GB (injuries), Oakland, Denver] and get bottled up by good ones [TB, Carolina, Chicago, Philly]. Something happened in Week 12 though as he destroyed Carolina for 117 yards and 4 TDs. He became a machine putting up solid games against everyone he faced, including TB and a tough Minnesota run D. He had 100+ yards and/or a TD in his last nine games.

There is some cause for concern though despite the monster numbers (1699 yards, 17 TDs). He had 376 carries last year. That is a lot for a back even if he didn't have much mileage prior to the season. Historically, RBs with such a huge workload see a dip in production the following year. I'm already calling for his TDs to reduce because of the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who is great inside the 20. He'll face a tougher schedule this year with games against Miami, New England, Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia, and the Jets, along with two games against Carolina and Tampa Bay. His fantasy playoffs schedule consists of matchups with New Orleans, the Jets, and Buffalo, which isn't terrible. Despite the likely dip in production I still think Turner will be a top 3-4 back. I'm expecting 1700 total yards and 13 TDs.

Maurice Jones-Drew
Maurice Jones-Drew finally gets a chance to prove that he can be an NFL feature back. Given what he's done in a somewhat limited role, the fantasy world is salivating at the thought of what he could do in an expanded role. Naturally there is some risk in taking a player who has never had 200 carries in a season, but that can be viewed as a plus since he hasn't put on a lot of mileage. Despite his 5'7? stature he is quite durable. That's because he packs 208 pounds of muscle on that frame. He is a bowling ball with great moves and quickness. What's more impressive is his nose for the end zone. Mojo has 40 TDs (34 rushing, 4 receiving, 2 return) in his three years. He also is extremely gifted at catching the ball out of the backfield. He has had 40+ receptions every year, including a career high 62 last year. He should benefit greatly from a healthy Offensive Line, which was the main reason behind Jacksonville's disappointing 2008 season.

This year Jacksonville has some nice matchups agaist Arizona in Week 2, St. Louis in Week 6, Kansas City in Week 9, and Cleveland in Week 17, which doesn't help most fantasy owners. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of Miami, Indianapolis, and New England, which is less than desirable. Of course a RB with MJD's versatility has the ability to produce against anyone.

Mo-Jo will likely go in the top three picks in most league, perhaps #1 overall in PPR leagues. I fully expect him to meet his lofty expectations. I'm putting him on 2000 total yards with 14 total TDs.

Matt Forte
Like most of the top Running Backs this year, there are some question marks with Matt Forte. AP likely has to deal with a gunslinger taking over at QB. MJD has never had more than 200 carries so it's unknown how he'll deal with an increased workload. Michael Turner had a ton of carries last year, something that historically has been bad for the following year production. Matt Forte's questions are similar to AP's. What will the addition of a proven QB mean to his production? With Jay Cutler under Center, will Forte lose carries? Likely. Though his ability to catch the football (led all RBs with 63 receptions last year) will keep him heavily involved in the Offense. Will his presence open up the running game by keeping Defenses honest? Likely. Though I don't expect Forte's production to suffer from Cutler's arrival.

The main thing Forte had going for him was consistency. He only failed to reach 10 fantasy points in one game (8.5 in Week 4 against Philly) during the typical fantasy season (He had 7.5 in Week 17). He scored a TD in 10 of the first 16 games. He didn't have monster games, but he delivered every week. Despite playing in an Offense with limited skill position players, Forte had 1715 total yards and 12 total TDs.

He has a fairly friendly fantasy schedule early on facing Detroit in Week 4 (unfortunately the second meeting is Week 17), a three-game stretch in Weeks 7-9 against Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Arizona, and Week 13 against St. Louis. His fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, which makes him a candidate to sell high. He faces Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota. His pass-catching ability should help, but that's a tough schedule at the worst possible time.

Though he could struggle down the stretch, he should still be good for 1700 total yards and 10+ TDs. Barring injury he'll be selected in the top four picks with a slight bump in PPR leagues.

The 2007 season for the Jacksonville Jaguars was suppose to be the stepping stone for bigger and better things. The Jaguars went 11-5 in the AFC South and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at Pittsburgh (which is almost unheard of) in the Wild Card playoff game.

Since that stunning win the Jaguars have become just another team. A disappointing season followed in 08' with a embarrassing record of 5-11.

The 09' season seems to be an extension of the 08' season, not much has changed. Not all is lost for the Jaguars, they do have one of the premier running backs in the NFL in Maurice Jones-Drew - who at only 5'7' is a threat every time he carries the ball.

MJD might be good for fantasy players but he can't win games by himself.

The Jaguars pass defense in one of the worst in the league - in the same division as the Colts, QB Peyton Manning will carve them up.

QB David Garrard was suppose to take that leap into one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, he is yet to take his game to the next level and has become and average QB.

If this is Garrard's fault or the fact he has no play-makers other then MJD remains to be seen.

The Jaguars overall are an average team or just below average at best. The 11-5 record in the 07' season and their win against the Pittsburgh Steelers seems like a distant memory.

The Jaguars do have two pieces in place that have the potential to be good team once again, Garrard and MJD, it's that the rest of the team is mediocre.

The Jaguars must make things happen in the very near future so MJD's talents do not go to waste for a team that is going nowhere fast.

Self expression is something that us Americans cherish and hold dear because frankly, we are one of the few country in the world that allow you to do what you want, wear what you want and have your hair as long as you damn well please.

This whole long hair controversy started last year when Chiefs running back superstar Larry Johnson tackled Pittsburgh Steelers safety Pro Bowler Troy Polamalu (who has probably the most recognizable hair in the NFL) by yanking on his hair and pulling him out of bounds, it was a sight to see and looked pretty damn painful, but you could make the argument that Larry Johnson was doing everything he could to make the tackle. On the other hand, it was pretty brutal and unnecessary in most people's eyes.

Well, next week all the NFL owners are getting together to discuss what rules they would like to enforce this season and the hair tackle will be one of them. This rule will not require to any football player like Polamalu to actually cut his hair (God knows how much trouble that would cause), but it will require him and all the other NFL players that have hair that cover the name on the back of their jersey to keep their hair in their helmet in what ever means possible.

If this rule does get votes from all or the majority of the NFL owners and get put into affect, you can expect some very mad NFL players like Troy Polamalu of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Maurice Jones-Drew over in Jacksonville and Robert Gallery with the Oakland Raiders. There will be a lot of unhappy players and may be even protests or some players even sitting out (doubt it, but very possible).

A stronger Jacksonville Jaguars team came back revamped and determined to make an impact in 2009, with some solid offensive weapons in place.

While the team did lose veteran running back Fred Taylor, they Jaguars have a magnificent athlete in Maurice Jones-Drew, and many NFL experts call him a top five running back in the league. This could be an enormous season for Jones-Drew, as he'll get more carries for the Jacksonville Jaguars than ever before. Then there's the acquisition of Torry Holt at wide receiver, adding tremendous strength to the team's passing game.

The Jaguars lost a very tough game in Indianapolis against the Colts to open up their 2009 football season. The Jaguars always seem to give the Colts a hard time, but this would obviously be a challenge, especially considering where the game was played.

While the Jags almost won this game, they fell just short, losing a 14-12 squeaker in the fourth quarter. This was a frustrating loss for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the team simply didn't have enough in the tank to overcome the Colts.

During the team's second week of football, the Jaguars hosted the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, last year's NFC conference champions, also set off their season on a bad note as they lost to the 49ers during their first week of football. Things didn't look good for the Jaguars in week two either, as they lost to the Cardinals by fourteen points. With a match up against the Texans next, more challenges await.

The Jacksonville Jaguars came into the National Football League in 1995. Over the years they have had some great players play for them including Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tony Boselli, and Tony Brackens. The team has also had some very good players play for them at the quarterback position. Here is a look at six little known facts about the quarterbacks of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

- Through the 2009 NFL season, Mark Brunell is in fourth place on the Jacksonville Jaguars all time rushing yards list with 2,219. This places him behind Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, and James Stewart. It puts him just ahead of Stacey Mack and fellow Jags quarterback David Garrard.

- The longest run from scrimmage ever by a Jacksonville quarterback went for 41 yards and was done by David Garrard.

- Mark Brunell was sacked 333 times during his time as quarterback of the Jaguars, no one was ever sacked more often than that.

- In 1996, Mark Brunell led the NFL with 4,367 passing yards, 272.9 passing yards per game, and 7.8 passing yards per attempt.

- Steve Beuerlein played 14 seasons in the NFL for six different teams. In his one season with the Jaguars in 1995 he put up the worst win-loss record of his career as a starter by going 1-5.

- The wide receiver who Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich threw the most touchdown passes to was Jimmy Smith. His 13 touchdown receptions from Leftwich are nearly double the second place player on the list, Ernest Wilford with seven.

As we enter the last few weeks of the NFL season, is it better to be playing excellent football, or does it even matter? A year ago at this time the Colts were the favorite to win the Super Bowl with the best record in the NFL and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There were questions as to whether it was better for coach Tony Dungy to rest his starters and coast the rest of the way, or to put the pedal to the metal.

Dungy chose to rest some starters. They lost two of their final three regular season games (0-3 ATS), barely beat a terrible Arizona team at home in the finale (17-13), needing a late TD, then lost the first playoff game to Pittsburgh, 21-18 as a double-digit favorite. They finished 0-4 ATS their final four games and looked listless in the first half of the playoff game. And those same Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl, winning their final 8 games (7-1 ATS).

This time of year, it's better to be playing your best ball AND be healthy, which is not always easy to do in the rough and tumble world of the NFL. Think back two years ago: The 2004 champion Patriots went 12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS down the stretch. The 2003 champion Patriots went 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS their final 15 games. In 2002 Tampa Bay went 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS their final 11 games while winning the Super Bowl. The 2001 Patriots went 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 their final 12 games. You get the picture.

Even more revealing is that Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher and Bill Belichick didn't "coast" or give star players rest. In the 2001 finale, Belichick pushed his team in a 38-6 rout of a 1-15 Carolina team. In the 2004 finale, the team had nothing to play for, yet after a 7-7 halftime tie with a bad San Francisco team, Belichick sent the starters back out for the second half in an eventual 21-7 win. Again, that game was meaningless, but it was more important to the coaching staff to execute and play well.

Which leads me to this 2006 season. The Colts are again the favorite to win it all as far as oddsmakers are concerned, but this team is not playing well, losing three of its last four games. Making matters worse is HOW they've been losing. The run defense is last in the NFL. They got run over for 219 yards two weeks ago in a 20-17 loss to Tennessee, then went belly-up Sunday as the Jaguars ripped through them with a surprising 44-17 victory. Jacksonville rushed for 375 yards! Jacksonville rushed 17 times for 251 yards and three touchdowns during the first half alone. Maurice Jones-Drew (166 yards) ran so much he started cramping up in the third quarter and had to get intravenous fluids. RB Fred Taylor was equally effective against the league's worst run defense, gaining 131 yards on nine carries before leaving the game with a sore right hamstring. Indy is now 1-4 ATS its last 5 games, and I can't see how Indy can match up with LaDainian Tomlinson & Co.

Speaking of the Chargers, San Diego continues to flex its muscles, riding a 7-game win streak, with a balanced and powerful offense that is 5th in the league. The Ravens are doing it on the other side of the line with a terrifying defense. The Ravens are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS after Sunday's impressive 20-10 win at Kansas City -- a team fighting for a playoff berth and one with a great home-field edge. The Ravens forced three turnovers and sacked Trent Green four times. It was only the second December home loss for the Chiefs since 1995! The Ravens have allowed 10, 0, 13, and 10 points the last four weeks (4-0 under the total).

If you're looking for a sleeper team that might be getting hot at the right time, take a look at the Bengals. Cincy is 4-0 SU/ATS the last four games, including a win over the Ravens. It's more important to play your best football this time of year, with the REAL season just around the corner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.